Ryan Kelbrants

Aug 21, 2020

 

Highlights

  • Corn is mixed, soybeans are lower and wheat futures are in positive territory ahead of the weekend. Weather patterns remain mostly favorable and the Pro Farmer tour is reported better than expected results in Iowa and strong numbers from Minnesota.
  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour results in day 4: Iowa corn 177.81 bpa (2017-19 avg 183.61), Iowa pod count 1,146.30 (2017-19 avg 1,136.27). Minnesota corn yield is estimated at 195.08 bpa (2017-19 avg. 180.19) with a soybean pod count of 1,085.84 (2017-19 avg. 1,125.25). the tour concludes today with final results released at 1:30 pm CT.
  • The USDA will release Aug 1 Cattle on feed report this afternoon. Average trade estimates: On Feed Aug 1 at 100.7%,  Placements at 105.9%, Marketings at 99.6%.
  • The forecast is calling for dryness in the Midwest over the next week, but the 8-14 day forecast remains wet. To view the latest 6-10 day forecast click here and 8-14 day forecast click here.
  • It comes as no surprise, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported Chinese imports of soybeans and wheat in January-July 2020 rose 108.9% and 116.3% respectively compared to the same period in 2019.
  • Outside markets as of 6:42 am CT: U.S. dollar is up 0.416 at 93.209 pts, crude oil is 58¢ lower at $42.25, DJIA futures are down 85 at 27,739 pts, and gold is down $12.10 at $1,923.30 per ounce.

 

Corn

  • Corn futures are slightly higher in early Friday. Look for choppy, thin trade ahead of the weekend.
  • For the week December corn is up 1 1/4¢ and July 2020 is 3 1/2¢ higher. For the month December is 12 1/4 higher and July 2020 is up 13 3/4¢.
  • In China overnight corn futures fell 2 1/2¢. For the week corn is 9 3/4 higher.  
  • China is reporting the discovery of the fall armyworm in their corn belt. The pest was found for the first time in the country’s northeast corn-belt.
  • FranceAgriMer is reporting a 3% drop in good/excellent condition for the French corn crop week on week. Recent warm weather and a lack of moisture attributed to the drop.  
  • The Sept/Dec corn spread has held at 14¢ carry. September's open interest dropped 9,731 lots with a total volume of 92,738. Open interest is 224,192 contracts.

Outlook: Unchanged to 2¢ higher.

 

Oilseeds

  • November soybeans are down 1 1/2¢ at $9.04, December soymeal is 30¢ higher per ton at $300.90 per ton, and soyoil down 13 points at $0.3139.
  • Malaysian palm oil markets were closed down 56 ringgits overnight but rose 34 ringgits for the week.   
  • Dalian Exchange Settlements:  Domestic soybeans rose 2¢, Import soybeans fell 25 1/4¢, soymeal was down $3.60 and soyoil dropped 54 pts.

Outlook: Lower ahead of potential daily export sales at 8:00 am CT.

 

Wheat

  • The wheat markets traded mostly higher overnight. December Chicago wheat is 2¢ lower, HRW futures are up 1 1/4¢, and HRW is up 3 1/2¢. 
  • SovEcon increased its 2020 wheat crop by 300,000 MT to 81.2 MMT.
  • Cold weather is being reported in parts of Australia. Winter crops in New South Wales and parts of Queensland may have experienced some negative effects.
  • The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange is reporting cold and dry weather patterns that have stressed the wheat crop.

Outlook: Chicago wheat up 2-3¢, HRW up 1-2¢, and HRS wheat markets 2-4¢ higher.