Ryan Kelbrants

Aug 20, 2020

Highlights

 

  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour results in day 3: West Central Iowa corn 172.41 bpa (2017-19 avg 186.28), Northwest 172.41 bpa (2017-19 avg. 183.47), and Southwest 184.74 bpa (2017-19 avg. 183.92). West Central Iowa pod count 1,177.41 (2017-19 avg 1,204.74), Northwest 1,013.31 (2017-19 avg. 1,054.74), and Southwest 1,164.03 (2017-19 avg. 1,266.65). Illinois corn yield is estimated at 189.40 bpa (2017-19 avg. 181.51) with a soybean pod count of 1,247.37 (2017-19 avg. 1,185.79). Today the tour continues in Iowa and moves into the great state of Minnesota results will be released this evening.
  • The 6-10 day is hot and 8-14 is calling for cooler temperatures. Above-average precipitation is seen in the major growing areas in both reports. To view the latest 6-10 day forecast click here and 8-14 day forecast click here.
  • Grain and oilseed markets are on the defensive this morning ahead of weekly export sales. Encouraging numbers from day three of the Pro Farmer Tour and improving weather is pressuring prices early Thursday.
  • A high ranking Chinese official reported China and the U.S. will hold trade talks on the Phase 1 trade agreement between the two countries “in the coming days.”
  • Outside markets as of 6:53 am CT: U.S. dollar is up 0.029 at 92.916 pts, crude oil is 43¢ lower at $42.50, DJIA futures are down 98 at 27,692 pts, and gold is down $25.30 at $1,935.20 per ounce.

 

Corn

  • Corn futures lower this morning on improving weather patterns and better than expected results from the Pro Farmer crop tour.
  • Estimates for this week’s export sales are 100,000-550,000 MT for 2019-20 and 400,000-800,000 MT for 2020-21.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, Argentine corn acreage will fall 100,000 hectares below last seasons record 6.2 million hectares. The drop is expected due to recent dryness.
  • In China overnight corn futures rose 3 1/4¢.
  • The Sept/Dec corn spread has held at 15¢ carry and shorts should consider rolling at these levels.  September's open interest continues to fall quickly.

    Outlook: 2-3¢ lower ahead of weekly export sales.

Oilseeds

  • November soybeans are down 5 3/4¢ at $9.08 1/4, December soymeal is $1.40 lower per ton at $301.10 per ton, and soyoil down 40 points at $0.3157.
  • Encouraging news that the U.S. and Chinese will meet in the near term is taking some risk premium out of prices as the Chinese continue to adhere to the trade agreement. Don’t be surprised to see a flash sale this morning for the USDA. If realized it would be the 13th consecutive session with an export sales announcement.   
  • Estimates for weekly exports sales for soybeans are 300,000-800,000 MT for 2019-20 and 2,000,000-3,100,000 MT for 2020-21. Soymeal 100,000-300,000 MT for 2019-20 and 25,000-150,000 MT for 2020-21, and soyoil 5,000-30,000 MT for 2019-20 and 5,000-30,00 Mt for 2020-21.
  • Malaysian palm oil markets were closed overnight to celebrate a national holiday.  
  • Dalian Exchange Settlements:  Domestic soybeans rose 27 14¢, Import soybeans fell 3 1/2¢, soymeal was down $1.00 and soyoil dropped 21 pts.

Outlook: Soybeans, soymeal, and soyoil are all trading lower on favorable weather patterns and favorable conditions.    

Wheat

  • The wheat markets traded mostly higher overnight. December Chicago wheat is 1 1/2¢ lower, HRW futures are up 1/4¢, and HRW is down 1 ½¢. 
  • Weekly export sales estimates are 300,000-600,000 MT for the 2020-21 marketing year.
  • Russian is expected to capture the number of top wheat exporter spot in 2020-21. Russian officials announced they intend to export 37 MMT versus the current USDA estimate at 34.24 MMT.
  • Jordan canceled their tender to purchase 120,000 MT of wheat while the Japanese bought 64,700 MT of wheat from the U.S., 26,200 MT from Canada, and 26,200 MT from Australia.

Outlook: Chicago wheat down 1-2¢, HRW up slightly, and HRS wheat markets down 1-3¢.