Ryan Kelbrants

Aug 18, 2020

Highlights

  • Look for above-average temperatures through the end of August. To view the latest 6-10 day forecast click here and 8-14 day forecast click here.
  • The USDA reported U.S. corn conditions were down 2% to 69% in the Good/Excellent categories and soybeans fell 2% in the Good/Excellent categories. 
  • The Pro Farmer Crop Tour reported, South Dakota corn yields at 179.24 bpd versus 154.08 last year. Soybean pod counts totaled 1,250.86 compared to 832.85 last season. Ohio corn yields were estimated at 167.69 bpa versus 154.35 last year and soybean pod count at 1,155.68 compared to 764.01 last year. The tour will be in Nebraska and Indiana today.
  • The USDA reported drop-in corn, soybean, and spring wheat conditions. Iowa corn saw a drop of 10% in the good to excellent category, fair condition rose 1% while conditions in the poor/very poor categories fell 9%.
  • NASS will collect harvested acreage data for Iowa, which, if needed, will be in the September 11th report.
  • Outside markets as of 6:37 am CT: U.S. dollar is down 0.298 at 92.553 pts, crude oil is 30¢ lower at $42.59, DJIA futures are up 60 at 27,835, and gold is up to $17.30 at $2,002.30 per ounce. 

Corn

  • Corn futures lower this morning on better than expected declines on crop conditions and improving weather. Corn denting is expanding across much of the Midwest.
  • Weekly Crop progress showed 76% of the corn is on the doughing stage versus 59% last week and 69% on average. 23% of the corn is denting, up from 11% from last week. Conditions fell 2% in the good to excellent categories versus last week.  
  • On China’s Dalian exchange corn was up 2 1/2¢ last night, trading at 2,302yuan per tonne.  
  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his U.S. corn yield at 180 bushels per acre and trimmed his corn production to 15.03 billion bushels. He also reported full-season corn planting is underway in southern Brazil.
  • The Sept/Dec corn spread has held at 14¢ carry. September's open interest dropped nearly 18,000 contracts. Maybe a good time to roll your short positions.

    Outlook: Corn is trading down 1-2¢ early Tuesday.

Oilseeds

  • November soybeans are down 2 ¾¢, soymeal is $1.90 per ton higher at $296.40 per ton, and soyoil up 16 points at $0.3146.
  • NOPA July U.S. soybean crush came in at 172.8 million bushels with estimates at 172.0 million bushels. Soyoil stocks came in 1.618 billion pounds versus estimates of 1.698 billion pounds. Soyoil stocks are the smallest since November of 2019.
  • The USDA reported 96% of the soybeans are blooming compared to 92% last week. 84% of the crop is setting pods versus 75% a week ago. The condition of the crop fell 2% in the good/excellent categories compared to a week earlier.
  • Malaysian palm oil rose 32 ringgits overnight.

Outlook: Soybeans 3 to 5¢ lower. 

Wheat

  • The wheat markets traded mostly lower overnight following corn and soybeans. Chicago wheat is down 3 3/4¢, KC is down 4¢, and Mpls is 1 1/4¢ lower. 
  • Weekly crop progress and conditions showed, 30% of the spring wheat is harvested, up 15% from last week but down 13% from the 5-years average. Spring wheat conditions fell 3% to 70% good/excellent.UK’s National Farmers Union estimates wheat yields could fall 30-35% due to excessive heat and severe thunderstorms.

Outlook: Its a turnaround Tuesday. All three wheat markets are trading lower.