Jim Warren

Aug 6, 2020

  Jim Warren

Highlights 

  • USDA will release its August Crop Production report at 11:00am CT next Wednesday, August 12th.  FSA’s initial estimate of crop acreage, including Prevent Plant acres, will be released the same day.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up 430 at 92.911, Crude Oil down $.25 at $41.94, Dow down 99 at 26956 and Gold up $20.40 at $2051.50. 

Corn

  • Corn exports were 2.7mmt vs. estimates of 2.1mmt – 3.2mmt in today’s weekly export sales report.
  • China again sold all the corn offered in its weekly auction, at an average price of about $7.33/bushel, down slightly from last week.
  • Ukraine’s ProAgro consultancy increased their estimate of grain production this year by 1.92mmt to 76.15mmt, which would be a record.  Their corn estimate was raised .37mmt to 38.86mmt and wheat was raised .52mmt to 26.59mmt (USDA is currently 39 & 26.5mmt respectively).
  • Ethanol production declined 27,000 bpd to 931,000 bpd last week.  Ethanol stocks increased by 74,000 bbls to 20.35 million bbls. 

Outlook: Corn is trading quietly in a small range overnight, still consolidating after Tuesday’s sharp decline.

Oilseeds

  •  Soybean exports were 1.75mmt vs. estimates of 800tmt – 1.75mmt, soymeal were 532tmt vs. estimates of 300-750tmt and soyoil were 35.5tmt vs. estimates of 5-35tmt.
  • The September Soybean Crush has rallied over 21 cents in the last 3 weeks, to currently 92 ½ cents, driven by soyoil strength and cheaper soybeans over that period.
  • USDA announced yesterday morning a sale of 192tmt soybeans to China for 2020/2021.
  • There were 0 deliveries in August soybeans, 259 in soymeal and 0 in soyoil. 

Outlook: Soybeans are nearing a decision point as it declines toward the uptrend line from the April low.  Late August weather is forecast to be hotter and drier.

Wheat

  • Wheat exports were 610.5tmt vs. estimates of 200tmt-800tmt.  China was the largest buyer this past week, purchasing 55tmt SRW and 30tmt HRS.
  • Egypt’s GASC bought 410tmt of wheat in its snap tender yesterday; 120tmt of Russian wheat for September 11-20 shipment and for Sept. 21-30 shipment there was 175tmt Russian plus 115tmt Ukraine wheat.
  • A Canadian farm advisory estimated their all-wheat production could be a record large 38.9mmt while USDA is at 34mmt in their July report.  The current record is 37.6mmt.
  • A U.S. ag attache has increased India’s 2019/20 wheat carryout to 24.7mmt based on official stocks reports.  USDA’s July estimate was 24.0mmt. 

Outlook: MN wheat made new contract lows in overnight trade.  Russia supplying most of the Egypt business highlights and a large Canadian crop is not bullish our market.