Jim Warren

Aug 4, 2020

By Jim Warren


  • The U.S. PMI index for July was 54.2, showing expansion of manufacturing activity, and improvement from June’s 52.6.
  • Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up 81 at 93.623, Crude Oil down $.71 at $40.30, Dow down 103 at 26455 and Gold up $5.40 at $1971.40.



  • Corn was rated 72% Good/Excellent in the Crop Progress and Condition report, unchanged from last week.  Iowa dropped 4 points to 73% G/E.  39% of the crop is in the dough stage, above the 5 year average of 33%.
  • There were 716tmt of corn inspected for export in the week ending July 30th.  That is down from 840tmt in the previous week.

Outlook: Prices gapped lower in overnight trade in response to a steady condition rating and increasing yield estimates, opening the door for a re-test of contract lows.



  • Soybeans were rated 73% G/E, up 1% from last week in yesterday’s report.  That is the highest rating for this date since 1994.
  • Brazil exported a record 10.37mmt of soybeans in July, compared to 7.44mmt in July 2019, according to government data there.
  •  There was a record 177.28mbu of soybeans crushed in June according to yesterday’s Fats and Oils report.  The previous record for the month of June was 169.6mbu.
  • USDA announced yesterday morning a sale of 260tmt soybeans to Unknown, 8tmt for 2019/2020 and 252tmt for 2020/2021.
  • There were 0 deliveries in August soybeans, 24 in soymeal and 0 in soyoil.
  • There were 551tmt of soybeans inspected for export last week, compared to 504tmt the previous week. 

Outlook: The pullback overnight leaves the November contract constrained in a wedge pattern, with boundaries currently at $9.00 and $8.83.


  • Spring Wheat conditions improved 3 points from last week to 73% G/E.  Harvest progress increased 4 points over the week to 5% complete; the 5 year average is 10%.
  • Winter Wheat is 85% harvested as of Sunday, close to the average of 88% for this date.
  • There were 500tmt of wheat inspected for export last week, compared to 544tmt the previous week. 

Outlook: After yesterday’s hard slide to near contract lows in KC and MN, the overnight trade is quietly starting out as an inside day.