Jim Warren

Aug 3, 2020

By Jim Warren

Highlights

  •  China’s manufacturing PMI was 52.8, indicating expansion of manufacturing activity, and was the largest increase since January of 2011.
  • The latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks bring above normal temperatures back into the forecast.  The Eastern U.S. has above normal precipitation forecast, while the West is dry.
  • ·Outside markets as of 7:00 am CT: Dollar up 419 at 93.768, Crude Oil down $.18 at $40.09, Dow up 147 at 26466 and Gold up $4.20 at $1967.00.

 Corn

  • Corn’s condition ratings are expected to have improved 1% in this afternoon’s weekly report.
  • USDA announced Friday morning a sale of 114.3tmt corn to Mexico for the 2020/2021 crop year.
  • The CUCZ spread has held support at the 11 cents carry level for the past 4 days but has not been able to exceed previous day’s highs either.

Outlook: Expectations of a large crop continue to grow, but prices are again finding some buying interest near contract lows for the third time this year.

 

Oilseeds

  • The average estimate for soybeans crushed in June, in today’s Grain Crushings report, is 177.8 million bushels.  The current record for the month of June is 169.6mbu.
  • There were 0 deliveries in August soybeans, 24 in soymeal and 210 in soyoil.
  • Soybean conditions are expected to have improved 1% this past week.

 

Outlook: November soybeans filled the gap lower they made July 28th and are now testing the $9.00 resistance level.

Wheat

  • Russia’s ag consultancy IKAR raised its estimate of their wheat crop to 79.5mmt, up 1.5mmt from their last estimate.
  • Brazil’s wheat crop has the potential to be record large this year, according to a poll of analysts.  The current record is 6.7mmt.
  • Ukraine’s wheat crop may drop to only 40% milling quality, according to a crop consultancy there. 
  • Russia’s Ruble currency has declined over 8% since its June high, which helps keep its wheat prices competitive in the world market.
  • The un-official crop insurance Harvest Prices for the 2020 crop that was just harvested are $4.45 in CO, NE and SD; and $5.24 in several central SRW states.

 Outlook: All 3 wheat classes gapped lower in overnight trade, as well as the Paris Milling Wheat contract, on expectations of a bigger world supply situation.  Last week’s lows are the first level of support.