Joe Lardy

Jul 31, 2020


  • The weather forecast for the next ten days has some rain but with below normal temps.
  • Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google all reported quarterly earnings that beat expectations.
  • China’s manufacturing index expanded for the 5th straight month and suggests that Chinese factories are returning to pre-covid levels.
  • The crude oil market is stronger with crude up 32 cents at 40.24/barrel.
  • US$ is down .036 at 92.985 and gold is up $24 at 1966.


  • The overnight trade has futures a few ticks on the plus side heading into the morning break.
  • The flash corn sales of 1.937 million tonnes to China reported yesterday was the biggest ever. It surpasses the old record set just 2 weeks ago.
  • The corn market will post a monthly loss for the first time in 3 months.
  • Spreads: U/Z 11 carry, Z/H 11.50 carry, Z/N 25.50 carry, Z/Z 36 carry.


Outlook:  The corn markets are hovering around unchanged again. Corn needs to see export activity to take the lead on its own or else it will just follow beans and wheat.




  • The bean market continues to good strength with futures up 4 cents this morning.
  • There were zero soybean deliveries but there were 24 contract of meal and 412 contracts of oil deliveries.
  • Yesterday’s Export sales for new crop beans were gigantic at 3,344,200 and that total was the highest in more than 8 years. The huge number has lifted the bean complex yesterday and today.
  • US crush is expected to drop for a third straight month according to analyst polled ahead of the USDA monthly crush report.
  • Spreads: X/F 5.75 carry, X/H 3.75 carry, X/N 13 carry, X/X 5.5 carry.


    Outlook:  Beans continue to rally on yesterday’s huge export sales total.       




  • The wheat market is higher with futures up 3 cents overnight.
  • Rains in the central plains is slowing the last of the winter wheat harvest.
  • Argentina’s wheat crop is 96% planted but they have had frost recently so that has added some worry about crop growth.
  • The French soft wheat crop is 90% harvested now, although conditions are way below last year.
  • Spreads: Mpls U/Z 13 carry and Kansas City U/Z 10.5 carry.


Outlook: The wheat markets are slightly high but December futures still remain rangebound between 530 and 540.