Katie Murphy

Jul 28, 2021

Outlook: Yesterday afternoon the API predicted across the board crude and product draws occurred last week, which is helping to keep energies steady pre-EIA stats this morning. The EIA report at 9:30 am CDT will be a driver this morning. We could see some influence in energy based on how equities and the dollar react to the Fed decision early afternoon.

Crude

  • Yesterday afternoon the API predicted US crude stocks fell 4.73 million barrels last week which Cushing, OK stocks fell 126,000 barrels.
  • A Reuters poll suggests at 9:30 am CDT we may see the EIA report US crude oil inventories fell 2.9 million barrels. A Bloomberg poll suggests a 2.4 million barrel draw.
  • The Federal Reserve wraps up a two-day policy meeting and an interest rate decision is due at 1:00 pm CDT today.
  • As of 9:16 am CDT: September Brent is up $0.24 to 74.72, the U.S. dollar index is 0.203 higher at 92.635 while the nearby e-mini S&P 500 futures contract is down 2.00 points at 4,392.50.

Diesel

  • Yesterday afternoon the API predicted US distillate stocks fell 1.88 million barrels last week.
  • A Reuters poll suggests today the EIA could report a 435,000 barrel weekly distillate draw. A Bloomberg poll suggests a 715,000 barrel draw.
  • BP Whiting, IN is keeping its largest 102,000 bpd coker unit shut since it started repairs to a leak a week ago. As a result, the 243,500 bpd crude unit has been running at reduced rates. Downtime is expected for another week. Chicago ULSD basis has been moving higher and at +2.75 over futures has moved up more than 5 cents since early July.

Gasoline

  • Yesterday afternoon the API predicted US gasoline stocks fell 6.23 million barrels last week.
  • A Reuters poll suggests today the EIA could report a 916,000 barrel weekly gasoline draw. A Bloomberg poll suggests a 1.1 million barrel draw.

Propane

  • An OPIS survey of 14 respondents suggests today we could see a 1.97 million barrel build in propane/propylene stocks reported today from the EIA. The range was from a 1 million barrel build to a 2.5 million arrel build. The export figure will be watched closely.
As of 9:17 AM CDT   WTI AugULSD AugRBOB AugNat Gas Aug
CONTRACT HIGH76.982.28062.33028.952
RESISTANCE72.102.16482.34004.050
PREVIOUS CLOSE71.652.14392.31413.971
GLOBEX-CURRENT71.992.14842.30894.000
SUPPORT70.602.11932.29503.950
CONTRACT LOW30.101.11990.90712.181