Ami Heesch

Oct 26, 2020


The grain markets were mostly lower on outside influences. Much needed moisture fell across the US Plains, with expectations of more to come.  Tropical Storm/ Hurricane Zeta makes its way toward Florida. Louisiana and the Carolinas.

  • New daily price limits set to change on November 1st.  Corn and wheat limits look to be unchanged at 25 cents for corn, 40 cents for KC/Chicago and 60 cents for Mpls wheat. Soybeans limit expected to go from 60 cents to 70 cents, meal from 200 to 250 and oil from $20 to $25.
  • Renewed worries of the spread of the CoronaVirus in Europe and the US, along with what looks to be a stalemate in the stimulus aid pressured energy and equity markets.
  • First Notice Day for November futures is Friday with long positions being reported after the close on Thursday.
  • The energy markets are mostly weaker with crude oil down 1.24 at 38.61/barrel.
  • The US$ is up 272 at 93.04, the gold market is up a freckle at 1902/ounce and the CD$ is down 0.0033 at 0.75760.
  • DJIA is down 748 at 27587, S&P down 71 at 3381 and the NASDAQ down 248 at 11299.



    Corn prices saw pressure from weakness in the wheat, energy and equity markets. Additional pressure came from a stronger US$. Harvest delays continue from rain events across the ECB and recent snow/rain mix in the WCB.    

  • Closes: December at $4.17 ¼, down 2 cents, March at $4.17 ¾, down 2 ½ cents, July at $4.18 ¾, down 2 cents.
  • Most months hit resistance near the $4.20 area.
  • CIF premiums were 2 cents firmer for Oct/ FH Nov and unchanged for LH Nov. Cash markets remain strong.
  • Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 636 tmt.
  • Harvest progress is estimated at 73% complete (68-75) versus 60% last week.
  • Spreads: Z/H ¾ carry, X/N 1 carry, Z/Z 26 inverse.



    Soybeans started the session lower but managed to pull themselves back into positive territory for Nov/Jan/March. Weekly export inspections were decent for this past week, leaving some thoughts that we may see an increase in soybean exports on the next USDA monthly S&D report.


  • Closes: November at $10.86 ¾, up 3 cents, March at $10.67 ¾, up 1 ¾ cents, July at $10.57 ¾, down 2 cents. The products were stronger with meal up 2-3 bucks and oil up 31 points.
  • The Nov & Jan seemed to have topped out just short of $10.90.
  • CIF premiums were mostly unchanged for O/N. Cash markets remain firm.
  • Weekly export inspections were solid at 2.7 mmt.
  • Harvest progress expected to be 86% complete (83-89) versus 75% last week.
  • Spreads: X/F 4 ¼ inverse, F/H 14 ¾ inverse.



    The wheat market got thumped on beneficial moisture for the US Southern Plains and the Black Sea Region. Prices drew additional pressure from strength in the US$ and spillover weakness in the equity markets.


  • December closes:  Mpls at $5.65 ½, down 12 cents, KC a t $5.51, down 18 ¾ cents and Chicago at $6.19 ½, down 13 ¼ cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were disappointing at 364 tmt.
  • Planting progress is estimated at 86% complete (84-88) versus 77% last week, with conditions expected to be near 52% G/E (42-65).
  • Paris milling wheat prices dew pressure from sharp losses in the US wheat market.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 10 carry, Kansas City Z/H 7 carry, Chicago Z/H ¼ carry. MWZ sits at a 12 ¾ premium to the KWZ.