Ami Heesch

Sep 14, 2020

Ami L Heesch 

Highlights

Tropical Storm Sally moves to a Category I hurricane, making its way to the US Gulf (New Orleans). It is expected to make landfall tomorrow as a Cat 2 hurricane.  The Wildfires continue as skies look cloudy as far east as western North Dakota ( as if the smoke has gotten blown across the states). Wall Street was firmer on the rebound of big tech stocks. 

  • NOPA Crush Report for August is scheduled for tomorrow around 11 AM CDT. The average trade estimate for soybeans crushed is at 169.5 million bushels with oil stocks estimated at 1.515 billion pounds.
  • USDA small Grains Summary and Sep 1 Grain Stocks reports are scheduled for September 30th at 11 AM CDT.
  • The energy markets are mostly higher with crude oil remaining on the defensive, down 11 cents at $37.97/barrel.
  • The US$ is weaker, down 293 at 93.03, the gold market is stronger, up 18 bucks at 1958 and the CD$ is steady at 0.75915.
  • DJIA up 318 at 27983, failing to hold above 28k, which was hit earlier in the session. The S&P is up 48 at 3382 and the NASDAQ is up 190 at 11039. 

Corn

Corn prices were supported from last week’s reduction in yield, production and ending stocks. Additional support came from another round of US corn sales for the 20/21 crop year. Gains were limited as harvest gets underway and conditions are expected to be steady. 

  • Closes:  December at $3.69, up ½ cent, March at $3.78 ¾, up ½ cent and July unchanged at $3.88. March 2022 tickled $3.99.
  • CIF premiums were mostly unchanged. Processor bids were steady to 1 cent firmer. Ethanol bids were mixed; unchanged to 3  cents firmer and 10 cents weaker.
  • USDA announced the sale of 106k tonnes of corn to Japan and 400k tonnes of corn to China for 20/21.
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 879 tmt compared to trade estimates between 500-900 tmt.
  • Crop conditions are estimated to be unchanged at 61% G/E (60-62).
  • Harvest progress is estimated at 5% complete (2-9).
  • Spreads: Z/H 9 ½ carry, Z/N 18 ¾ carry, Z/Z 20 carry, Z/K 4 ½ carry.

Oilseeds

Soybeans tickled two-year highs on seriously strong demand and a reduction in crop size. More bean biz to China and Unknown. Prices retreated near the close on a bout of profit taking after the Nov reached a 14th higher close out of the last 15 sessions. 

  • Closes:  November at $9.98 ½, up 2 ½ cents (high was at $10.08), March at $10.00 ½ cent, up 3 ¾ cents, July at $10.02 ¼, up 7 ½ cents. The products were mixed with meal down 2-3 bucks and oil up 62 points.
  • CIF premiums were mostly unchanged. Processor bids were mixed (unchanged to 3 cents weaker to 10 cents firmer).
  • Weekly export inspections were reported at 1.3 mmt compared to trade estimates between 800 tmt-1.5 mmt.
  • USDA announced the sale of 318k tonnes of beans to Unknown and 129k tonnes of beans to China for 20/21.
  • Crop conditions are expected to be unchanged at 65% G/E (64-67). Harvest is on the cusp of getting started.
  • The canola market traded higher, to levels not seen for over two years, on harvest delays, solid strength in the US soyoil market and a bout of technical buying.  Most months made new contract highs. The November closed up $5.40 at $522.80/cwt.
  • Spreads: X/F 3 ¾ carry, X/H 2 ¼ carry, X/N 3 ½ carry, X/X 40 ½ inverse, F/H 1 ¼ inverse, F/K 1 inverse.

Wheat

Wheat prices were mixed with Mpls on the defensive while KC and Chicago saw a bout of bargain buying after recent dips. There are still hopes that China will be in the market for more US wheat. 

  • December closes: Mpls at $5.30 ¼, down 2 cents, KC at $4.75 ¼, up 4 cents, Chicago at $5.47, up 5 cents.
  • Weekly export inspections were decent at 637 tmt. This compares to trade estimates between 400-700 tmt (121 HRS, 245 HRW, 68 SRW, 159 White, 44 HAD).
  • Paris milling wheat traded choppy with concerns of slowing feed demand amidst a ginormous wheat purchase by Saudi Arabia.   
  • StatsCan raised their all wheat crop to 34.1 mmt, versus 32.3 mmt last year. The Durum crop is estimated at 6.1 mmt versus 5.0 mt last year.
  • Saudi Arabia raised their wheat purchase to 745k tones for Nov-Jan C&F. 60k was slated for 11 pro and 685k was slated for 12.5 pro.
  • Jordan tenders for 120k tonnes of optional origin hard mill wheat.
  • Spring wheat harvest estimated at 91% complete (89-94) versus 82% last week.
  • Winter wheat planting is estimated at 13% complete (10-18) versus 5% last week.
  • Spreads: Mpls Z/H 12 ¾ carry, Kansas City Z/H 11 carry, Chicago Z/H 8 ¾ carry. Mpls Dec premium to KC Dec is at 56 ½ cents.