Michaela White

Aug 5, 2020

Highlights

  • Outside markets as of 4:22 PM Central: September crude oil at $42.20 up $0.50 per barrel; U.S. Dollar Index at 92.833 down 0.549; gold at $2,034.40 up $33.20 per troy ounce; Dow futures at 27,073 up 356 points.
  • Last trading day for August live cattle options is Friday, August 7th and first notice day is Monday, August 10th.
  • The next WASDE report is on Wednesday, August 12th.

Corn

Corn bounced higher today after putting in fresh contract lows yesterday. Today’s gains seemed to be more of a dead cat bounce rather than a correction. There was little fresh news today, the most noteworthy being a drop in weekly ethanol production.

  • Weekly ethanol production dropped 27,000 barrels per day to 931,000 bpd and inventories were unchanged at 20.3 million barrels.
  • A private analytics firm is predicting the U.S. corn yield will be 179.0 bushels per acre on the next WASDE report.
  • Estimates for the weekly export sales report range between 100,000 tonnes to 600,000 tonnes of old crop corn and between 2,000,000 to 2,600,000 tonnes of new crop corn.
  • Closes: September at $3.10 ¼ up 2; December at $3.22 ½ up 2 ¼; March at $3.35 up 2 ¾; July at $3.50 ¼ up 3.
  • Spreads: U/Z 12 ¼ cent carry; Z/H 12 ½ cent carry; Z/N 27 ½ cent carry.

Oilseeds

Soybeans closed lower again today, ignoring the flash sale this morning. The November contract closed below its 50-day moving average which is at $8.81 ½. The contract hasn’t spent much time below that moving average since late May and early June.

  • A private analytics firm is predicting that the U.S. soybean yield will be 52.5 bushels per acre on the next WASDE report.
  • The USDA reported a flash sale this morning of 192,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 20/21 marketing year.
  • Estimates for the weekly export sales report range from 200,000 to 550,000 tonnes of old crop soybeans and  600,000 to 1,200,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans; estimates for old crop soymeal range from 100,000 to 450,000 tonnes and new crop estimates range from 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes; soy oil estimates range from 5,000 to 30,000 tonnes for old crop and 0 to 5,000 tonnes of new crop.
  • Closes: September at $8.76 down 3 ¾; November at $8.78 ¼ down 3 ½; January at $8.84 ¾ down 3 ¼; July at $8.98 ¼ down 1.  
  • Spreads: U/X 2 ¼ cent carry; X/F 6 ¾ cent carry; X/H 8 ½ cent carry; X/N 20 cent carry.

Wheat

The wheat markets were mixed today, with Kansas City mostly higher and Chicago and Minneapolis mixed. The results from the GASC tender were announced, but U.S. wheat didn’t make the list. Following yesterday’s explosion in the Lebanese port of Beirut, officials have said that Lebanon has less than a month’s worth of grain reserves, but they have enough flour on hand to avoid a crisis.

  • Egypt’s GASC bought 410,000 tonnes of wheat in their recent tender for September shipments. Of the total, 295,000 tonnes were Russian and 115,000 tonnes were Ukrainian.
  • Estimates for the weekly export sales report range from 200,000 to 800,000 tonnes.
  • September Closes: Chicago at $5.10 ½ up 2 ¼; Minneapolis at$5.01 down ¾; Kansas City at $4.26 up 3 ¾.
  • Spreads: Chicago U/Z 6 ¾ cent carry, Z/H 8 ¼ cent carry; Minneapolis U/Z 11 cent carry, Z/H 14 ½ cent carry; Kansas City U/Z 11 cent carry, Z/H 10 ¾ cent carry.