Michaela White

Aug 4, 2020

Highlights

  • The Lebanese capital Beirut had a massive explosion near the city’s port that reportedly killed at least 50 people. The countries Prime Minister said there will be an investigation of the incident.
  • WSJ reported that the U.S. and China have agreed to high level trade talks to discuss China’s compliance with the bilateral trade deal on August 15th.
  • Outside markets as of 3:45 PM Central: September crude oil at $41.54 up $0.53 per barrel; Dow futures at 26,710 up 152 points; U.S. Dollar index at 93.292 down 0.250 points; gold at $2,016.20 per try ounce up $50.20 per troy ounce.
  • Last trading day for August live cattle options is Friday, August 7th and first notice day is Monday, August 10th.
  • The next WASDE report is on Wednesday, August 12th

Corn

It was an ugly day in the corn market as the September and December contracts put in fresh contract lows. The market was under pressure from good crop conditions yesterday as well as early estimates for the next WASDE report that expect to see an increase in yield estimates from the USDA.

  • A Brazil based consulting agency estimated that the countries 20/21 total corn crop could be a record 110.3 million tonnes, up from 101.2 million tonnes in the year prior.
  • Closes: September at $3.08 ½ down 9; December at $3.20 ½ down 8; March at $3.32 ¼ down 8; July at $3.47 ½ down 6 ¼.
  • Spreads: U/Z 12 cent carry; Z/H 12 cent carry; Z/N 26 ¾ cent carry.

Oilseeds

Soybeans were under significant pressure today following better than expected crop conditions.  Additional downward pressure is likely related to early estimates for the WASDE report that show an expectation for an increase in yield estimates

  • A Brazil based consulting agency estimated that the countries 20/21 soybean crop could be a record 132.6 million tonnes, up from 124.7 million tonnes the year prior. They also expect soybean exports to remain strong due to firm Chinese demand.
  • Closes: September at 8.79 ¾ down 13 ¼; November at $8.81 ½ down 14 ¾; January at $8.87 ¾ down 14; July at $8.99 down 8 ½.
  • Spreads: U/X 1 ¾ cent carry; X/F 6 cent carry; X/H 7 cent carry; X/N 17 ½ cent carry.

Wheat

The wheat markets continued their downward spiral today on overall market weakness. The trade expects to see large crops both nationally and globally.  Chicago was the biggest loser followed by Kansas City and Minneapolis. September Minneapolis hit a fresh life of contract low today of $5.01 ½ but did remain above the $5.00 mark. September Chicago closed below it’s 50-day moving average of $5.12 ¾ for the first time in a month.

  • Egypt’s GASC issued a tender for wheat seeking cargoes of soft and/or milling wheat for shipment in September.  
  • Jordan issued a tender seeking 120,000 tonnes of million wheat from optional origins that closes August 12th.
  • Ethiopia received five offers in a tender for 400,000 tonnes of wheat. A purchase hasn’t been reported at this time.
  • September Closes: Chicago at $5.08 ½ down 12 ½; Minneapolis at $5.02 ½ down 4; Kansas City at $4.22 ¼ down 8 ½.
  • Spreads: Chicago U/Z 8 cent carry, Z/H 9 ¼ cent carry; Minneapolis U/Z 14 ¼ cent carry, Z/H 14 ¼ cent carry; Kansas City U/Z 11 cent carry, Z/H 11 ½ cent carry.